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UAH Global Temperature Deconstruction as of Dec 2011

03 Feb

UAH Global.  The trend is substantially lower once cyclical component is removed.  Click for larger image.

And for even more fun, another projection to 2100…  Any good alarmist will show something that accelerates, right?  And alarming it is indeed, a whopping 0.8°C.  And before you ask, yes, I’m quite sure the “Accel” parameter is accurate to 9 places  :-)

(quietly removes alarmist hat)

I’ve done dozens of these little exercises, using different techniques and datasets, and they seem to all point to cooling until 2028, ±.  This one says 2025.  But this is a projection, not a prediction, or whatever those guys call it…

UPDATE: I thought I had the January data but didn’t… Here is a chart with it.  Trend drops to 0.41°C per century.

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3 Comments

Posted by on February 3, 2012 in Climate

 

3 responses to “UAH Global Temperature Deconstruction as of Dec 2011

  1. Andres Valencia

    February 13, 2012 at 12:08 pm

    Hello Michael,

    Very interesting article. Thanks.

    In a similar but much simplified way I have found:
    The temperature trend for UAH NSSTC lower tropospheric global mean from 1979 to 2002 was 1.04°C per century.
    The temperature trend for UAH NSSTC lower tropospheric global mean from 2002 to 2012 was 0.32°C per century.

    See WoodForTrees.org: Temperature trends for UAH NSSTC lower trop. global mean from 1979 to 2002 and 2002 to 2012: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2002/trend/plot/uah/from:2002/to:2012/trend/plot/uah/from:1979/to:2012/mean:13

    I think the great El Niño of 1998-1999 was a peak in our warming and now we head towards cooling. The Total Solar Irradiance (see Abdussamatov 2009 and 2012) is pointing the same way.

    There are some other articles at http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChangeBW.htm that I think you might find interesting.

    Andres

     
  2. Michael D Smith

    February 15, 2012 at 8:28 pm

    Very nice summary page at oarval.org. Thanks for posting it. There are a lot of others who are hypothesizing that temperatures will cool, some very sharply during cycle 25. David Archibald has a recent article on WUWT which also references this one http://arxiv.org/pdf/1202.1954v1.pdf . I certainly hope temperatures do not fall that much or we’re going to live in a different place.

    Interesting charts. I’m working on a few techniques for regime change detection using the range between a few successive data points, and similar techniques as those used in control charts for quality control. It would be interesting to detect changes in trend as well. I’m also going to do something that show how cyclical frequencies change over time, sort of a moving decomposition of cyclical information… I think a guy named Fourier may have already done this, but I might try it too…

     
    • Andres Valencia

      February 16, 2012 at 9:12 am

      Michael, thanks for your good comment.
      After a warming peak there is no way but cooling. I hope it is brief and shallow; cold kills!
      A look at what the PDO and ENSO have been doing explains the Earth’s response, a good, detailed look at the Sun explains the cause (Svensmark and Abdussamatov).
      Scafetta and Orssengo also follow in Fourier’s steps.

       

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