In response to:
The trend is down, at -.189 million km^2/yr.
Posted by Michael Smith on April 28, 2012 in Climate
April 28, 2012 at 11:57 pm
The modeled trend is down, but the actual trend is flat.
Look at the ends of that graph closely, comparing the ping (modeled) curve to the yellow (actual) ice extent.
Look especially at the upper and lower peaks. The pink (modeled) peaks are well above the actual (yellow) ice extents (both minimum and maximum!) at the left (2008) end of the graph. That’s because the pink (modeled) curves show a declining trend which does not exist in the actual ice extent data.
Michael D Smith
April 29, 2012 at 1:21 am
It is a least squares error analysis, it is minimizing the error for 9 variables. True, the sine wave doesn’t do the data justice, which is why you see quite a non random residual at the bottom. It looks like I need an exponent on the sine wave of less than 1 at the top to flatten it and greater than 1 at the bottom to sharpen it… A 2nd wave didn’t help, I ended up setting its amplitude to zero. It will be interesting to see what happens this summer, it looks like the earth is in a cooling phase.
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