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GISTemp Annual Rank & Run Analysis

27 Jan

Using GISTEMP, annual average only, 62.9% of ALL years are in the top 10.  There is nothing unusual at all about having most of the last years in the top 10. We are in a pretty good run, with 18 of the last years in the top 10. The next longest streak was 12 years from 1934 to 1945. 14.4% of ALL years (of 132) were ranked as #1.  When in an overall uptrend, it would (obviously) not be uncommon for most of the most recent data to be near the top.  I notice the same thing when I drive.  I’m almost always closer to the destination the longer I drive 🙂  The likelihood depends on the slope and the underlying variation.

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2 Comments

Posted by on January 27, 2012 in Climate

 

2 responses to “GISTemp Annual Rank & Run Analysis

  1. Howie

    January 24, 2014 at 5:19 am

    The chart supports the fact that the climate has been getting hotter. If you look at the range of average temps between 1880 and 1920, it’s basically a flat line – the highest and lowest years stay about the same. For example, put your hand over the chart covering to the right of 1920 – the spread of dots is pretty evenly spread – going to the left of your hand, there are 2 in the high end for that 40 year span, then 3 in the low end, then 2 in the high end, 7 in the low end, 1 in the high end, 2 in the low end, 1 in the middle, 3 in the high end, 1 in the middle.

    Then put your hand over the chart covering to the left of 1920, or even the left of 1900, or even just view the whole chart. Beginning around 1930, after many years of mass automobile production and increased energy usage and increased accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere, the range of highs starts to increase, and the range of the lows starts to increase. By 1980, the lowest of the lows is higher than the highest of the highs between all of 1880 and 1930. Then, between 2000 and 2010, the very coldest year is hotter than the hottest year between 1880 and 1985.

    Yes, as you drive your auto, you get closer to your destination. Likewise, as carbon continues to accumulate in the atmosphere, the earth on average gets hotter and the climate changes and weather on average becomes more extreme. Yes, as this continues, the most recent 10 years will continue to normally be among the 20 hottest until we get to the destination of an unliveable planet. Though the world economy will collapse into a great depression first, so we’ll have far less resources and wealth as we head into that unliveable planet.

    The argument that the earth over the last 40,000 years has had rises and falls in temperature even without humans releasing massive amounts of carbon into the atmosphere is meaningless because 30,000 years ago, if there was a dramatic rise or fall in temperature, you as a nomad would simply grab your spear and tiny amount of possessions and migrate with your little tribe of 40 people to a warmer or colder spot. Today, people have homes and lots of stuff and lots of ties to several large communities (e.g. their local school, place of worship, clubs and other groups they belong to, etc.) and to workplaces and you can’t spur of the moment relocate most of your friends, family, groups, communities and workplaces to the same place.

    In addition, there are massive numbers of people living close to oceans, bays, and tidal rivers, and you can’t relocate them or build levees around the entire world.

    In addition, most of us who live within an hour of a beach or go to them for vacation love them, and don’t want to live in a world without beaches.

    Also, 40,000 years ago and 20,000, and 10,000 years ago, there was a tiny number of people being supported by the planet. If some of them needed to migrate from one area to another, there was generally enough food overall to support them. Today, we heavily depend on crops for our food (including for feeding livestock). If food production drops by a third due to climate change, it will be an unmitigatable disaster.

     
    • Michael D Smith

      January 24, 2014 at 10:04 pm

      No one argues that temperatures have increased out of the LIA (albeit by almost unmeasurable amounts, but it’s not a point worth bothering with) But there is no evidence that high CO2 levels are detrimental or that sensitivity to CO2 is large. Most recent studies rule high sensitivity out, which is why the IPCC is on such a climb-down spree (with a long way to go).

      You might benefit from a historical perspective on what 0.8°K looks like.

       

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