28 Apr

In response to:

The trend is down, at -.189 million km^2/yr.


Trend is still down…


Posted by on April 28, 2012 in Climate


2 responses to “Trend is still down…

  1. daveburton

    April 28, 2012 at 11:57 pm

    The modeled trend is down, but the actual trend is flat.

    Look at the ends of that graph closely, comparing the ping (modeled) curve to the yellow (actual) ice extent.

    Look especially at the upper and lower peaks. The pink (modeled) peaks are well above the actual (yellow) ice extents (both minimum and maximum!) at the left (2008) end of the graph. That’s because the pink (modeled) curves show a declining trend which does not exist in the actual ice extent data.

  2. Michael D Smith

    April 29, 2012 at 1:21 am

    It is a least squares error analysis, it is minimizing the error for 9 variables. True, the sine wave doesn’t do the data justice, which is why you see quite a non random residual at the bottom. It looks like I need an exponent on the sine wave of less than 1 at the top to flatten it and greater than 1 at the bottom to sharpen it… A 2nd wave didn’t help, I ended up setting its amplitude to zero. It will be interesting to see what happens this summer, it looks like the earth is in a cooling phase.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: