US Midwest having its coldest beginning of year ever

I finally replicated Steve Goddard’s Charts!  And now have my solver added.

Compare and contrast:


And mine:

2014-05-01 22_19_56-Microsoft Excel - Midwest through 04282014.xls

That is some serious cooling going on here in the midwest.  About 1.5°F cooler now than in 1900.

You can do this too with Steve’s code, available here:



Posted by on May 1, 2014 in Climate


IPCC AR5 Claims in review – Last decades unusual?

Claim:  Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850.

I will be using GISTemp, which is available from 1880.

Decadal temperatures (GISTemp land stations)

2014-03-31 22_41_44-Microsoft Excel - GISSRunAndRankGlobal2014Land.xls

As a starting observation, 78.6% of ALL decades are ranked number one.  This ranking is taken since the beginning of the series, so a ranking of one means that the previous first rank was exceeded.  Here is the chart:

2014-03-31 23_00_57-Microsoft Excel - GISSRunAndRankGlobal2014Land.xls

Now to the question at hand… Is it unusual for the last 3 decades to successively warmer, and warmer than any other decade since 1850?  We can answer the question since 1880 with this dataset.  We can’t test the claim before 1900 since we need 3 successively warmer decades AND warmer than anything previous.


2014-03-31 23_35_14-Microsoft Excel - GISSRunAndRankGlobal2014Land.xls

Answer:  No, since 54% of ALL decades will make the claim true.  Notice also that the claim is not unusual before CO2 emissions became “important” by IPCC standards, at around 1945.  The decades before and since all have similar probabilities for making the claim true.

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Posted by on March 31, 2014 in Climate


December 15th World Sea Ice

December 15th World Sea Ice

No trend once cyclical signals are removed.

Inspired by: Steve Goddard.

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Posted by on December 19, 2013 in Climate



UAH Global: Trend and cyclical analysis as of July 2012: Zero trend.


UAH Global temperature trend and acceleration after removing best fit cyclical variables.  Trend: 0.00002°C/year.  Acceleration: 0.0000094°C/yr^2.  “For entertainment purposes”, this is extended to 2100:  Note that the timing of the end of cooling has moved a little compared to many other datasets.  This one reaches a minimum in 2034, most others reach minimum around 2028 / 2030

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Posted by on August 4, 2012 in Climate


Colorado Drought

How can there be a drought:

When CO has received 4 to 10″ of rain in the last 60 days?


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Posted by on August 2, 2012 in Climate


Colorado Annual Temps

The trend is half what NCDC claims (even using their wildly adjusted data).

Once you take out the cyclical component, the trend is 0.079°C per decade…


Posted by on June 30, 2012 in Climate


In response to:

The trend is down, at -.189 million km^2/yr.


Trend is still down…


Posted by on April 28, 2012 in Climate